all we can do is collide together

behind the curtain none has found his way
none came to know the secret as we could say
and each repeats the dirge his fancy taught
which has no sense - but never ends the lay

- omar khayyam

I get John Mauldin's newsletter and a few days ago it contained a piece by George Friedman called The Geopolitics of Iran. I highly recommend people take the time to read it to get a nibble of Iran and the way it is. I'm not really going to provide much commentary since I have nothing insightful to really say but I think the second last paragraph hits the nail on the head.

"Iran is secure from conceivable invasion. It enhances this security by using two tactics. First, it creates uncertainty as to whether it has an offensive nuclear capability. Second, it projects a carefully honed image of ideological extremism that makes it appear unpredictable. It makes itself appear threatening and unstable. Paradoxically, this increases the caution used in dealing with it because the main option, an air attack, has historically been ineffective without a follow-on ground attack. If just nuclear facilities are attacked and the attack fails, Iranian reaction is unpredictable and potentially disproportionate. Iranian posturing enhances the uncertainty. The threat of an air attack is deterred by Iran's threat of an attack against sea-lanes. Such attacks would not be effective, but even a low-probability disruption of the world's oil supply is a risk not worth taking."

Sorry just a little bit of side commentary. You can stop reading if you have better things to do.

It's the second point that is Iran's real weapon. They are goading the US or Israel into attacking because it helps them recruit more people into their proxy wars and covert operations. They are willing to sacrifice infrastructure if it will help create more support not only in Iran but also elsewhere in the shia community. We tend to forget that Iran has an insanely young population who mostly want to be western (seriously talk to some young iranians). The mainstream media always focuses on the extremists (including the government) and never the regular people because they don't make for good news stories. An attack would ensure that some of those young will become radicalized thus helping the current regime just like they were in the late 60s and early 70s. While Iran may have very little love for Israel they can't be completely stupid. If they did attack Israel it is almost guaranteed that they will be wiped out by Israel's own nuclear capability which doesn't all reside in Israel. I am going to invoke the chewbacca defense and say this does not make sense. Unfortunately it seems like some kind of confrontation will happen and it's exactly what Iran wants. Diplomacy is the only way out.