3 posts tagged “geopolitics”

on the way to the garden

the garden is breathing out the air of paradise
today. i can sense myself, and this lively wine,
and this friend whose nature approaches the divine.

it's all right if the beggar claims to be a king
today. his tent is a shadow thrown by a cloud;
his banqueting hall is a newly sown field.

paradise is here in the simple tale that the may
meadow tells; the wise person lets the future
and its profits go, and accepts the cash now.

please don't imagine that your enemy will ever
be faithful to you. the candle the hermit lights
will always flutter out in the worldly church.

make your soul strong then by letting it drink
the secret wine. this rotten world has its own
plans to press our dust into bricks.

- hafez

Another piece by George Friedman of Stratfor called Mediterranean Flyover: Telegraphing an Israeli Punch? which provides a few tasty morsels for the inner geopolitical geek in us all. The whole concept of either Israel , US or both attacking Iran has fueled a great deal of speculation about what they are going to do and increasing instability. I think the article takes a more pragmatic look at what might going on and also hints at the inner conflict within Iran itself as it tries to cement what it perceives as a new hegemony in the region and how evolves as a nation. Also we see the flip side to Iran acting crazy from the previous post to Israel engaged in act of misdirection to keep the Iranians on guard and paranoid. The net effect of this is that it's doubtful anything will happen soon and will keep the fires of speculation going. This is one high stakes pissing match.

Finally, the Israelis and Americans might not be intending an attack at all. Rather, they are — as the Iranians have said — engaged in psychological warfare for political reasons. The Iranians appear to be split now between those who think that Ahmadinejad has led Iran into an extremely dangerous situation and those who think Ahmadinejad has done a fine job. The prospect of an imminent and massive attack on Iran could give his opponents ammunition against him. This would explain the Iranian government response to the reports of a possible attack — which was that such an attack was just psychological warfare and could not happen. That clearly was directed more for internal consumption than it was for the Israelis or Americans.

We tend toward this latter theory. Frankly, the Bush administration has been talking about an attack on Iran for years. It is hard for us to see that the situation has changed materially over the past months. But if it has, then either Israel or the United States would have attacked — and not with front-page spreads in The New York Times before the attack was launched. In the end, we tend toward the view that this is psychological warfare for the simple reason that you don't launch a surprise attack of the kind necessary to take out Iran's nuclear program with a media blitz beforehand. It just doesn't work that way.

behind the curtain none has found his way
none came to know the secret as we could say
and each repeats the dirge his fancy taught
which has no sense - but never ends the lay

- omar khayyam

I get John Mauldin's newsletter and a few days ago it contained a piece by George Friedman called The Geopolitics of Iran. I highly recommend people take the time to read it to get a nibble of Iran and the way it is. I'm not really going to provide much commentary since I have nothing insightful to really say but I think the second last paragraph hits the nail on the head.

"Iran is secure from conceivable invasion. It enhances this security by using two tactics. First, it creates uncertainty as to whether it has an offensive nuclear capability. Second, it projects a carefully honed image of ideological extremism that makes it appear unpredictable. It makes itself appear threatening and unstable. Paradoxically, this increases the caution used in dealing with it because the main option, an air attack, has historically been ineffective without a follow-on ground attack. If just nuclear facilities are attacked and the attack fails, Iranian reaction is unpredictable and potentially disproportionate. Iranian posturing enhances the uncertainty. The threat of an air attack is deterred by Iran's threat of an attack against sea-lanes. Such attacks would not be effective, but even a low-probability disruption of the world's oil supply is a risk not worth taking."

Sorry just a little bit of side commentary. You can stop reading if you have better things to do.

It's the second point that is Iran's real weapon. They are goading the US or Israel into attacking because it helps them recruit more people into their proxy wars and covert operations. They are willing to sacrifice infrastructure if it will help create more support not only in Iran but also elsewhere in the shia community. We tend to forget that Iran has an insanely young population who mostly want to be western (seriously talk to some young iranians). The mainstream media always focuses on the extremists (including the government) and never the regular people because they don't make for good news stories. An attack would ensure that some of those young will become radicalized thus helping the current regime just like they were in the late 60s and early 70s. While Iran may have very little love for Israel they can't be completely stupid. If they did attack Israel it is almost guaranteed that they will be wiped out by Israel's own nuclear capability which doesn't all reside in Israel. I am going to invoke the chewbacca defense and say this does not make sense. Unfortunately it seems like some kind of confrontation will happen and it's exactly what Iran wants. Diplomacy is the only way out.

Night (O you whose countenance)
      
Night. O you whose countenance, dissolved
in deepness, hovers above my face.
You who are the heaviest counterweight
to my astounding contemplation.

Night, that trembles as reflected in my eyes,
but in itself strong;
inexhaustible creation, dominant,
enduring beyond the earth's endurance;

Night, full of newly created stars that leave
trails of fire streaming from their seams
as they soar in inaudible adventure
through interstellar space:

how, overshadowed by your all-embracing vastness,
I appear minute!---
Yet, being one with the ever more darkening earth,
I dare to be in you.

-rilke

Being the outlier that I am I often find things fascinating that other people find boring. One example is my interest in history and geopolitics. I've noticed that in general when I bring it up during conversations with people I know or new people it's very short lived. The curious thing is that the most interesting geopolitical conversations I've had recently are with cab drivers. I was going into work yesterday and I started talking to the cab driver about the weather which turned into the orange crop that got wiped out and then to the price of orange juice. From the crop that failed I talked about a similar incident in Australia last year where the banana crop got wiped out and the prices sky rocketed. The cabbie mentioned it would be strange to think in America about the price of bananas going up because of how it imports bananas. I told him about the US vs EU banana dispute which happened in the 90s where the WTO had to arbitrate. This leaped into how countries deal with each other which meant we got to the middle east.  We talked about what can be done about Iraq at this point and this lead to talking about Iran/Israel and the eventual conflict that will happen over nuclear armament. Unfortunately we arrived at my destination and our conversation had to end. All this from a simple statement about the strange weather in SF.

I like to push buttons and perhaps that's a faux pas but there's a part of my brain that lacks the kill switch to stop (perhaps I have aspegers?). A favorite question of mine right now is if there should be a tactical strike against Iran as it tries to build nuclear weapons. I'll post my views on it at some point (It will be a long post). I ask the question to figure out how people think and how much they know about the world. I've had silence, yes/no answers and long conversations about it. I think people who know me are sick of how many times I ask the question to people I've just met. Silence generally means you don't know or care enough to give an answer (the vast majority of people). The long conversations are fun because it shows you know something about the world. I'm not so much interested in the position you take just that you can articulate your position. The worst answer is a yes/no without any supporting evidence. It would seem better to just say "I don't know anything about it and stop talking to me".

I had some time before meeting a friend for dinner and drinks last night so I picked up the The Journal of International Security Affairs. Before you start whispering "right wing nut" I read lots of different things. I read stuff from all over the political spectrum. I was interested in this issue because it was about US allies in the 21st century and adversaries. I wanted to see what the current hawkish perspective is. It was also an interesting prop during drinks because I know what people thought when they picked it up and said "is this yours?". The look on their face said it all and in particular  in SF people will automagically label you as some kind of conservative. I find it funny because my politics are nothing like that.  Needless to say my conversations with them were rather short.  It may have also been because I was uninteresting and asking inappropriate questions.

It got me thinking about it when I got home. When did I become contrarian? It turns out pretty young. When I was in 1st or 2nd grade we had an international day coming up and we were told to write a speech about the country we were born in. I was born in Sri Lanka so I thought I'd write about my views about it. Every other kid wrote the same general stuff about the country they were born in and why it was so great. My speech started like this "My name is Prasanna and I was born in Sri Lanka and I hate the country I was born in". I then explained while a country rich in resources and unmatched natural beauty it was falling apart with civil war. I have to give credit to my teacher she had read what I had written and picked me as one of the people to give the speech in front of all the parents, students and teachers. I remember the reaction of the crowd when I started my speech and people kept telling me what a brave little boy I was for speaking my mind. To me it's far better to let people know where you stand instead of being silent.